Chronological simulation for transmission reliability margin evaluation with time varying loads

This paper has as objective to assess the chronological variations in the Available Transfer Capability (ATC) caused by uncertainties associated with hourly load fluctuations and equipment availabilities. The system states resulting from these uncertainties are generated using the Monte Carlo Method with Sequential Simulation (MCMSS). The ATC for each generated state is evaluated through a linear optimal power flow based on the Interior-Point Method. These ATC values have been used to generate the probability distribution of the hourly ATC. This probability distribution enabled to estimate the Transmission Reliability Margin (TRM) for a specified risk level. The results, with a modified version of the IEEE Reliability test System, demonstrate that the time dependent uncertainties have a significant impact on the TRM.

Research highlights
► Probabilistic ATC evaluation considering chronological aspects.
► Probability distribution enables to estimate the TRM for a specified risk level.
► The load and generation patterns have a large impact on the base case ATC.
► Sequential simulation models time dependent uncertainties.
► The energy transfers efficiency is severely reduced by uncertainties.