Estimating prognosis for survival after treatment of choroidal melanoma

Choroidal melanoma is fatal in about 50% of patients. This is because of metastatic disease, which usually involves the liver. Kaplan–Meier survival curves based only on tumor size and extent do not give a true indication of prognosis. This is because the survival prognosis of choroidal melanoma correlates not only with clinical stage but also with histologic grade, genetic type, and competing causes of death. We have developed an online tool that predicts survival using all these data also taking normal life-expectancy into account. The estimated prognosis is accurate enough to be relevant to individual patients. Such personalized prognostication improves the well-being of patients having an excellent survival probability, not least because it spares them from unnecessary screening tests. Such screening can be targeted at high-risk patients, so that metastases are detected sooner, thereby enhancing any opportunities for treatment. Concerns about psychological harm have proved exaggerated. At least in Britain, patients want to know their prognosis, even if this is poor. The ability to select patients with a high risk of metastasis improves prospects for randomised studies evaluating systemic adjuvant therapy aimed at preventing or delaying metastatic disease. Furthermore, categorization of tissue samples according to survival prognosis enables laboratory studies to be undertaken without waiting many years for survival to be measured. As a result of advances in histologic and genetic studies, biopsy techniques and statistics, prognostication has become established as a routine procedure in our clinical practice, thereby enhancing the care of patients with uveal melanoma.