Childhood Predictors of the Metabolic Syndrome in Middle-Aged Adults: The Muscatine Study

ObjectiveTo investigate the association between components of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) measured during childhood/adolescence, and adult MetS.Study designThis investigation focused on members of the Muscatine Study Longitudinal Adult Cohort. Predictor variables were risk factor measurements obtained between 1970 and 1981 when cohort members participated in school survey examinations. Risk factor measurements obtained between 1982 and 2008 when cohort members participated in follow-up examinations as young and middle-aged adults were used for MetS classification.Results33.0% (29.7% of 474 women; 37.0% of 384 men) of cohort members were classified as having the MetS. The initial MetS classification occurred at ages ranging from 23 to 52 years, with a mean age of 37.2 years (SD = 7.4). Cohort members with the MetS had significantly higher body mass index, systolic blood pressure, and triglycerides at the time they participated in the school survey examinations (P < .0001). Estimated probabilities of remaining MetS free at age 35 for those whose school survey body mass index and triglyceride measurements were both <50th vs ≥75th percentiles were strikingly different (0.94 vs 0.42).ConclusionsBMI is the strongest childhood predictor of adult MetS. Early identification of at-risk children may reduce the burden of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.