Quantitative analysis of anthropogenic influences on coastal water – A new perspective

• We studied the long-term anthropogenic influences on coastal waters and tried to provide a new perspective for environment sciences research by using quantitative methods which are new to this field.
• The long-term variations of seawater quality in Western Xiamen Bay were assessed quantitatively combining with oceanographic knowledge.
• The differences of seawater quality in developing and developed coasts were compared to evidence the influence of different development levels on environment.

Coastal environment has been disturbed by human activities for a long time, especially in the rapidly urbanizing and industrializing areas. Although the surrounding area has achieved great economic success in the past 30 years, Western Xiamen Bay (China) is seriously affected by pollutants and is facing increasing ecological pressure. Because of this, Xiamen was selected in 1994 as a demonstration site for implementing an integrated coastal management program, which included a series of measures for protecting the coastal environment. However, coastal environment is dynamic, complex and site-specific, and thus a scientific quantitative evaluation framework is necessary for environment quality analysis and effective coastal management. In this study, we used oceanographic knowledge together with quantitative methods (Bai-Perron's structural break test) to analyze the long-term variations of water quality indices (pH, DO, COD, DIN, PO4-P and Oil) in Western Xiamen Bay. In addition, we compared with other coastal areas to identify the effectiveness of phosphorus-based nutrient management measures and predicted the probable variation trend in the future. The results show that in Western Xiamen Bay: (1) the concentrations of DO and Oil in seawater are effectively controlled by local coastal management measures; (2) seawater acidification will continue to worsen based on the present situation; and (3) the P-limitation treatment strategies are effective and PO4-P concentration starts to fall according to the multiple statistical analysis and Environmental Kuznets Curve. This paper hopes to provide an epitome of the conflicts and consolations between socioeconomic development and environmental quality in the past, and hints for coastal management in the future.