Modelling of landscape changes derived from the dynamics of socio-ecological systems: A case of study in a semiarid Mediterranean landscape

Europe's cultural landscape has undergone notable changes in the last few decades. In particular, conserving the cultural rural landscape of the Mediterranean basin constitutes a difficult task due to the fact that, on one hand, rural abandonment, and on the other, agricultural intensification, are generating a new type of landscape which is apparently less appealing than the traditional one. Indeed, this landscape depends upon the maintenance of traditional agricultural uses and their associated activities, both of which depend on local environmental conditions and on socio-economic conditioning factors. The latter are increasingly being seen as the causes of the changes. Modifications in the social structure and processes affect and alter the rural environment, so that ecological and socio-economic information must be integrated for use as a basis for land use planning and management.In the present paper we have applied numerical analyses which associate territorial structure with economic and socio-cultural structure, predicting new types of landscape by means of experimental scenarios of socio-economic changes. The configuration of the traditional rural landscape studied and its spatial heterogeneity depend upon the proportion of the agriculture, pasture and woodland components of the traditional systems. Formalization of this landscape–socio-economy dependence enables us to consider scenarios of socio-economic change and to deduce variations in the landscape. We simulated changes related to the promotion or abandonment of agriculture. The model developed can be considered as an effective agri-environmental indicator, as it provides most of the characteristics required for analysis and environmental appraisal at landscape level.