Assessing uncertainty of nitrate variability in groundwater

Nitrate is the primary form of nitrogen in natural waters and it can easily pass through soil to groundwater. Some levels of nitrate concentration in groundwater can cause some health problems such as methemoglobinemia in infants and several cancers. Since geological structures are not homogeneous, investigation of spatial variability of nitrate concentrations in groundwater is characterized by particularly high uncertainties. In this paper, a novel methodology for measure of uncertainty in groundwater nitrate variability is presented. To appraise the fuzziness, which is a type of uncertainty in spatial models, point cumulative semimadogram (PCSM) measure and a metric distance were employed. Measures of fuzziness have been carried out for each location using the experimental and model PCSMs. Finally an uncertainty map, which defines the regional variation of the uncertainty in different categories, has been composed.