Modeling high-severity fire, drought and climate change impacts on ponderosa pine regeneration

► We model stages of ponderosa pine regeneration using a water balance methodology. ► The model correctly simulates 62% of regeneration outcomes at five field sites. ► Fire simulations suggest that fire conditions can suppress germination rates by 43%. ► Future climate change simulations either decrease or increase regeneration by site. ► Fire and climate change affect regeneration for different reasons.