Networks of habitat patches in tsetse fly control: Implications of metapopulation structure on assessing local extinction probabilities

Controlling tsetse fly populations in much of sub-Saharan Africa is one of the great challenges in stopping the spread of trypanosomosis diseases in both humans and domestic livestock. Mathematical models have been used for informing control efforts against this fly. However, often these models are too simple and do not address spatial complexity. In this brief communication, network theory is used to construct a metapopulation model to test standard results from some of these models that derive female extinction probability and show that by adding spatial complexity of metapopulation theory the extinction probability of the flies change in biologically significant ways.

► Extinction probabilities of tsetse flies are often given without ecological context.
► Network theory is used to construct a metapopulation model of tsetse fly extinction.
► The extinction probabilities change dramatically in this metapopulation model.
► Management decisions in tsetse control should include insights from spatial models.