Exurban sprawl increases the extinction probability of a threatened tortoise due to pet collections

► We model the effects of exurban sprawl on the spur-thighed tortoise in southeast Spain. ► We simulate the long-term effect of collections on this tortoise population dynamic. ► Exurban intensity is a key factor determining tortoise population decrease. ► High and moderate levels of development cause a reduction above 97% of population level. ► Strong development constraints and educational programs are required to conserve this species.