Ecosystem states: Creating a data-derived, ecosystem-scale ecological response model that is explicit in space and time

► We developed a state-and-transition model for an Australian estuary. ► States included data on a range of taxa and transitions used environmental data. ► Multiple temporal scales were incorporated in a single model. ► The methodology was robust to patchy and low-quality data. ► The model has been used predictively to assist managerial decision-making.