Uncertainty analysis of climate change mitigation options in the forestry sector using a generic carbon budget model

In a second step the model estimated the sink potential of the Thuringian forestry sector. The projected average biomass sink for the period of 2003-2043 of 0.6 t C ha−1 year−1 could be increased by 50% by broadening the perspective to the entire forestry sector, including substitution effects. A simulation of forest conservation on 20% of the forest area increased C fixation. However, even in the biomass C pool the expected C stock changes did not exceed the estimated uncertainty of 40%. A higher level of aggregation (i.e. the inclusion of soil and litter, product pool and substitution effects) decreases relative uncertainty but also diminishes differences between different management options. The analysis demonstrates that the choice of management mitigation options under an accounting scheme should include the impacts on forest products and of substitution effects.