Modelling the initiation and spread of Infectious Pancreatic Necrosis Virus (IPNV) in the Irish salmon farming industry: The role of inputs

Observed emergence of IPNV in farmed Irish salmon is simulated using a model originally developed to analyse the spread of the virus in Scotland [Murray, A.G., 2006a. A model of the spread of infectious pancreatic necrosis virus in Scottish salmon farms 1996-2003. Ecol. Model. 199, 64-72]. IPNV appears to have become established relatively recently in Ireland and the model is altered to explicitly simulate the origin of the spread of the virus. Input to freshwater farms was key to initiation of infection, but modelling suggests that endogenous spread was responsible for much of the subsequent increase in prevalence of IPNV. From the modelling, it is unlikely that direct imports accounted for most IPNV cases. If this is the case, cessation of imports, without a substantial improvement in biosecurity, would be likely to be of only limited effect in controlling IPNV. Marine IPNV prevalence appears to be insensitive to direct interventions in the marine environment (as in the Scottish model). A multi-element control strategy, targeting both endogenous spread and external input of infection and prioritising freshwater sites, but extending to marine sites, would probably now be required to eradicate IPNV from Ireland.