Political shifts and changing forests: Effects of armed conflict on forest conservation in Rwanda

• Aspects of conflict can have very different impacts on forest cover.
• Theoretical framework distinguishes armed conflict activity impacts from conflict settlements.
• Forest transitions in NW Rwanda indicated more spatially concentrated loss during conflict.
• 96% of forest loss during conflict across the landscape occurred in protected areas.
• Results underscore heavy dependence on forest resources during conflicts.

Most armed conflicts in recent history occurred in biodiversity hotspots. Yet, studies examining impacts of warfare on forests yield contradictory results. This study provides a theoretical framework articulating different hypothetical relationships between conflict and forest transitions. Landsat TM and ETM+ data were analyzed to examine forest transitions in Rwanda during conflict and post conflict periods. Net trends showed little difference between periods, with a rate of 1.6% annual gain during conflict years, and 2.5% following the conflict. Closer inspection revealed spatially concentrated forest loss during conflict years; 96% occurred in protected areas with the most loss in Gishwati Forest Reserve at a rate of −6.1%. Trends were explored with spatially explicit conflict data that distinguished armed conflict activity from conflict induced settlements. Impacts of conflict on forests in Rwanda appear to be influenced by natural resource use near settlements. Massive migrations of people into settlements during the conflict, who had previously been scattered across the landscape, resulted in a redistribution of pressures. Reduced pressure elsewhere supports this inference. Results underscore the vulnerability of protected areas and the spatial dynamics of forest resource dependence during conflicts. This work demonstrates the value of distinguishing conflict activities to assess their varied environmental effects.