Measuring soil disturbance effects and assessing soil restoration success by examining distributions of soil properties

• A Bayesian HLMM examines restoration success in soil properties via distributions.
• Distribution widths for soil properties were sensitive to disturbance.
• Distribution locations were not necessarily sensitive to disturbance.
• Reclaimed areas became more similar to reference areas as recovery time increased.

Successful restoration of an ecosystem following disturbance is typically assessed according to similarity between the restored site and a relatively undisturbed reference area. While most comparisons use the average or mean parameter to represent measured properties, other aspects of the distribution, including the variance of the properties may assist in a more robust assessment of site recovery. Our purpose was to compare soil properties in different ages of reclaimed soils with those in reference areas by incorporating the potentially different distributions according to areas. On two sampling dates, in consecutive years, we examined soil properties on a chronosequence of reclaimed natural gas pipelines spanning recovery ages of <1–54 years, obtaining data on soil moisture, organic carbon, nitrogen, electrical conductivity, pH, and microbial abundance. To make the comparisons, we analyzed our data with a Bayesian hierarchical linear mixed model and obtained posterior predictive distributions for the soil properties. This allowed us to probabilistically quantify the extent to which a soil property from a reclaimed treatment was similar to that from an undisturbed reference. We found that the posterior predictive variance of most soil properties was particularly sensitive to disturbance and reclamation, especially, within the first few years of recovery. Response of this variance to disturbance, reclamation, and recovery was not necessarily accompanied by a shift in the posterior predictive mean value of the property. Patterns for all soil properties changed over time, with posterior predictive distributions of soil properties generally becoming more similar to those of the undisturbed reference sites as recovery time increased. We suspect these trends in altered variability coincide with the degree of spatial heterogeneity in soil properties that results following disturbance and reclamation, which is also coupled to patterns of vegetation recovery.