Modeling impacts of climate change on Joshua trees at their southern boundary: How scale impacts predictions

► Increasing temperature by +3 °C resulted in a 90% reduction in current distribution. ► Refugium of suitable Joshua tree habitat still remained at most severe scenario. ► More optimistic than previous models of climate change impacts on Joshua trees. ► Early levels of climate change may have already impacted Joshua tree recruitment. ► Invasive grass niche shifted with Joshua trees; indicates fire threat to persistence.