کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
4385602 | 1304544 | 2011 | 10 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
![عکس صفحه اول مقاله: Conservation in the face of climate change: The roles of alternative models, monitoring, and adaptation in confronting and reducing uncertainty Conservation in the face of climate change: The roles of alternative models, monitoring, and adaptation in confronting and reducing uncertainty](/preview/png/4385602.png)
The broad physical and biological principles behind climate change and its potential large scale ecological impacts on biota are fairly well understood, although likely responses of biotic communities at fine spatio-temporal scales are not, limiting the ability of conservation programs to respond effectively to climate change outside the range of human experience. Much of the climate debate has focused on attempts to resolve key uncertainties in a hypothesis-testing framework. However, conservation decisions cannot await resolution of these scientific issues and instead must proceed in the face of uncertainty. We suggest that conservation should precede in an adaptive management framework, in which decisions are guided by predictions under multiple, plausible hypotheses about climate impacts. Under this plan, monitoring is used to evaluate the response of the system to climate drivers, and management actions (perhaps experimental) are used to confront testable predictions with data, in turn providing feedback for future decision making. We illustrate these principles with the problem of mitigating the effects of climate change on terrestrial bird communities in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA.
Journal: Biological Conservation - Volume 144, Issue 4, April 2011, Pages 1204–1213