Environmental change hastens the demise of the critically endangered riverine rabbit (Bunolagus monticularis)

Declining population numbers coupled with the growing evidence of global change have focussed attention on the critically endangered riverine rabbit (Bunolagus monticularis) endemic to South Africa. The aim of this study is to develop a habitat model to aid in the identification of isolated populations, offer opportunities for re-introduction or introduction, and guide future conservation efforts by assessing the possible impacts of global change. We attempt a novel approach where plant species which afford the riverine rabbit cover from predation and its primary food sources are modelled utilising the same technique and are included as a predictor variable in the habitat model for both current and future projections of potential habitat. Inclusion of this proximal variable as well as riparian areas yields a more parsimonious habitat model than using climatic variables alone. Results suggest that unsurveyed suitable habitat east of Victoria West might harbour previously overlooked isolated populations or offer new opportunities for re-introductions. Future climatic conditions under the most severe general circulation model for the region (HADCM3) suggest that, on average, in excess of 96% of the current habitat could become unsuitable, mitigated only slightly by a possible 7% increase in range in adjacent upper catchment areas. Consideration of existing land transformation increases this range reduction by a further 1%. Given that ex situ captive breeding programmes have met with no success and that the bulk of future potential range lies well outside of the currently known and surveyed areas the current adaptation options of conservancy establishment and captive breeding need to be re-evaluated. Without positive human intervention the future of the critically endangered riverine rabbit under conditions of global change seems certain.