Impacts of climate change and human activities on vegetation cover in hilly southern China

• Vegetation cover in hilly southern China improved and exist spatial heterogeneity.
• Residual analysis separated the influence of climate factors and human activities.
• Ecological restoration programs have positive effect on vegetation.
• The adverse effect of drought has offset the benefits of ecological restoration.

Vegetation cover is a commonly used indicator to evaluate terrestrial environmental conditions. Changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation alter the structures and functions of the landscape, thereby affecting ecological processes. Hilly southern China is an important ecological restoration area, in which the vegetation cover and land use has changed significantly. However, very few studies have considered vegetation changes due to multiple factors in this region. We investigated the spatiotemporal variations in vegetation cover using a Normal Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series data set obtained from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and climate data from 2000 to 2010. Our results indicate that the NDVI during the growing season had increased by 0.03% during the 11-year period. Patterns of change in vegetation cover differed among locations, with 58.7% of the study area displaying increased NDVI values, and in 7.3% of the study area, within an ecological restoration zone, the increase was significant. Effective ecological restoration programs, such as Grain for Green and hill closure for afforestation, have improved the environmental conditions. The spatiotemporal variations in vegetation cover were likely to be a synergistic impact of climate change (fluctuations in temperature and precipitation) and human activities. A residual analysis of the changes in the NDVI indicated that human activities had either improved or degraded vegetation cover in some parts of southern China. Specifically, the negative effects of extreme weather events in 2009 and 2010 offset the positive benefits of ecological reconstruction programs in the western part of the study area. This indicates that extreme weather events should be considered in the design and planning of future ecological reconstruction. Drought-resistant plant species might be considered for future ecological projects. However, an eco-risk assessment should be conducted when introducing drought-resistant plant species.