Conservatism of responses to environmental change is rare under natural conditions in a native grassland

Whether or not niche conservatism is common is widely debated. Despite this uncertainty, closely related species are often assumed to be ecologically similar. This principle has led to the proposed use of phylogenetic information in forecasting species responses to environmental change. Tests of niche conservatism often focus on ‘functional traits’ and environmental tolerances, but there have been limited tests for conservatism in species’ responses to changes in the environment, especially in the field. The prevalence of functional convergence and the likelihood of functional trade-offs in a heterogeneous environment suggest that conservatism of the response niche is unlikely to be detectable under natural conditions. To test the relevance of evolutionary information in predicting ecological responses, we tested for conservatism (measured as phylogenetic signal) of grassland plant population responses to 14 treatments (e.g. light, nutrients, water, enemies, mutualists), each manipulated for 2–3 years, and 4 treatment categories (aboveground, belowground, resource, and herbivory) at a single site. Individual treatment responses showed limited evidence of conservatism, with only weak conservatism in plant responses to mycorrhizae and grazing. Aspects of the response niche were conserved among monocots both aboveground and belowground, although the pattern varied. Conservatism was limited to grazing aboveground, but belowground responses were conserved as a group, suggesting fundamental differences in how selection has led to niche conservatism in aboveground and belowground environments. Overall, our results suggest that conservatism of the response niche is not common, but is actually rare. As such, evolutionary relationships are likely to be of limited relevance for predicting species responses under field conditions, at least over the short time scales used in this study.