Linking a farmer crop selection model (FCS) with an agronomic model (EPIC) to simulate cropping pattern in Northeast China

In this paper, authors established a farmer crop selection model (FCS) for the three provinces of Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang of the Northeast China. With linking to the environmental policy integrated climate model (EPIC), the simulated results of FCS model for maize, rice and soybean were spatialized with 1 km×1 km grids to obtain cropping pattern. The reference map of spatial distribution for the three staple crops acquired by remote sensing imageries was applied to validate the simulated cropping pattern. The results showed that (1) the total simulation accuracy for the study area was 78.62%, which proved simulation method was applicable and feasible; (2) simulation accuracy for Jilin Province was the highest among the three provinces with a rate of 82.45% since its simple cropping system and not complex topography; (3) simulation accuracy for maize was the best among the three staple crops with a ratio of 81.14% because the study area is very suitable for maize growth. We hope this study could provide the reference for cropping pattern forecasting and decision-making.