Stochastic population switch may explain the latent reservoir stability and intermittent viral blips in HIV patients on suppressive therapy

• We developed a model that includes the population switch of HIV infected cells.
• We performed both deterministic and stochastic simulations of the model.
• The model can explain the long-term dynamics of HIV and the latent reservoir.
• Treatment intensification or activation therapy may not eradicate the virus.
• Blocking the proliferation of latently infected cells may be a good strategy.

Highly active antiretroviral therapy can suppress plasma viral loads of HIV-1 infected individuals to below the detection limit of standard clinical assays. However, low-level viremia still persists. Many patients also have transient viral load measurements above the detection limit (the so-called “viral blips”). The latent reservoir consisting of latently infected CD4+ T cells represents a major obstacle to HIV-1 eradication. These cells can be activated to produce virions but the size of the latent reservoir is relatively stable. The mechanisms underlying low viral load persistence, emergence of intermittent viral blips and stability of the latent reservoir are not well understood. Cellular and viral transcription factors play an important role in the establishment and maintenance of HIV-1 latency. Infected cells with intermediate transcriptional activities may either revert to a latent state or become highly activated and produce virions due to intracellular perturbations. Here we develop a mathematical model that includes such stochastic population switch. We demonstrate that the model can generate a stable latent reservoir, intermittent viral blips, as well as low-level viremia persistence. Latently infected cells with intermediate transcription activities may maintain their size through a high level of homeostatic proliferation, while cells with low transcriptional activities are likely to be maintained through the reversion from cells with intermediate transcription activities. Simulations also suggest that treatment intensification or activation therapy may not help to eradicate the latent reservoir. Blocking the proliferation of latently infected cells might be a good strategy. These results provide more insights into the long-term dynamics of virus and latently infected cells in HIV patients on suppressive therapy and may help to develop novel treatment strategies.