Simulating the effects of fluctuating dissolved oxygen on growth, reproduction, and survival of fish and shrimp

• We develop an exposure-effects model for fish and shrimp exposed to low DO.
• Equations relate reductions in growth, survival, and fecundity to hourly exposures.
• Parameters are estimated from results of constant exposure laboratory experiments.
• The model predicts effects on fish and shrimp during exposure to fluctuating DO.
• Cumulative growth, reproduction, and survival were predicted well by the model.

Individuals are commonly exposed to fluctuating levels of stressors, while most laboratory experiments focus on constant exposures. We develop and test a mathematical model for predicting the effects of low dissolved oxygen (hypoxia) on growth, reproduction, and survival using laboratory experiments on fish and shrimp. The exposure-effects model simulates the hourly reductions in growth and survival, and the reduction in reproduction (fecundity) at times of spawning, of an individual as it is exposed to constant or hourly fluctuating dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations. The model was applied to seven experiments involving fish and shrimp that included constant and fluctuating DO exposures, with constant exposures used for parameter estimation and the model then used to simulate the growth, reproduction, and survival in the fluctuating treatments. Cumulative effects on growth, reproduction, and survival were predicted well by the model, but the model did not replay the observed episodic low survival days. Further investigation should involve the role of acclimation, possible inclusion of repair effects in reproduction and survival, and the sensitivity of model predictions to the shape of the immediate effects function. Additional testing of the model with other taxa, different patterns of fluctuating exposures, and different stressors is needed to determine the model's generality and robustness.