A discrete event system specification (DEVS)-based model of consanguinity

Consanguinity or inter-cousin marriage is a phenomenon quite prevalent in certain regions around the globe. Consanguineous parents have a higher risk of having offspring with congenital disorders. It is difficult to model large scale consanguineous parental populations because of disparate cultural issues unique to regions and cultures across the globe. Although consanguinity has previously been studied as a social problem, it has not been modeled from a biological perspective. Discrete event system specification (DEVS) is a powerful modeling formalism for the study of intricate details of real-world complex systems. In this paper, we have developed a DEVS model to get an insight into the role of consanguineous marriages in the evolution of congenital disorders in a population. As proof-of-concept, we further developed a consanguinity simulation model in Simio simulation software. Simulation results validated using population growth data show the effectiveness of this approach in the modeling of consanguinity in populations.

► Consanguineous parents have a higher risk of offspring with congenital disorders.
► We develop a DEVS-based formal framework for modeling consanguinity.
► We subsequently convert this formal model into a Simulation model in Simio.
► The model is validated using real-world data retrieved from various sources.
► Complex biological and population phenomena can be explained using this approach.