کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
4498451 1318983 2008 10 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
The effect of superspreading on epidemic outbreak size distributions
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک (عمومی)
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
The effect of superspreading on epidemic outbreak size distributions
چکیده انگلیسی

Recently, evidence has been presented to suggest that there are significant heterogeneities in the transmission of communicable diseases. Here, a stochastic simulation model of an epidemic process that allows for these heterogeneities is used to demonstrate the potentially considerable effect that heterogeneity of transmission will have on epidemic outbreak size distributions. Our simulation results agree well with approximations gained from the theory of branching processes. Outbreak size distributions have previously been used to infer basic epidemiological parameters. We show that if superspreading does occur then such distributions must be interpreted with care. The simulation results are discussed in relation to measles epidemics in isolated populations and in predominantly urban scenarios. The effect of three different disease control policies on outbreak size distributions are shown for varying levels of heterogeneity and disease control effort.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Theoretical Biology - Volume 253, Issue 2, 21 July 2008, Pages 228–237
نویسندگان
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