Merging geospatial and field data to predict the distribution and abundance of an exotic macrophyte in a large Wisconsin reservoir

Geospatial and field data were merged to characterize the invasion of an exotic macrophyte into a large (∼6192 ha), reservoir, the Chippewa Flowage, Wisconsin, USA. Multi-scale analyses provided data for quantitative models of human, abiotic and biotic influences that would explain the presence and abundance of Myriophyllum spicatum L., a widespread, aquatic species. Human and abiotic factors were analysed in a geographic information system and additional abiotic and biotic factors were sampled at 2778 sample points. Using multivariate logistic and multiple linear regressions the relationships between 29 factors and the species’ presence and abundance were quantified. M. spicatum occurred at 181 of 992 vegetated points. M. spicatum abundance was significantly influenced by two geospatial variables (wave action and water-level drawdown) and two site variables (water depth and native species presence). Separate models for shallow and deep water explained 32% and 30% of M. spicatum abundance, respectively (compared to 22.8% using all 181 points). The species’ vertical distribution (range = 0.30–4.27 m) was related to depth of winter drawdown (∼1.3 m on average) and to water depth (an indicator of decreasing light), as well as to shading by floating-leaved macrophytes. Spatial extrapolation of model predictions for M. spicatum presence indicated that a total 940 hectares are at risk for M. spicatum invasion (∼15% of the Chippewa Flowage; about 2.5 times larger than the current distribution).

► We analysed the distribution and abundance of Myriophyllum spicatum (MYSP).
► Wave action appears to have expanded MYSP's distribution through synergistic effects.
► Winter drawndowns may limit the shoreward distribution of MYSP.
► Floating-leaf plants were negatively associated with MYSP, suggesting competition via shading.