کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
4609806 1338529 2015 40 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
A stochastic SIRS epidemic model with infectious force under intervention strategies
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه ریاضیات آنالیز ریاضی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
A stochastic SIRS epidemic model with infectious force under intervention strategies
چکیده انگلیسی

In this paper, we extend a classical SIRS epidemic model with the infectious forces under intervention strategies from a deterministic framework to a stochastic differential equation (SDE) one through introducing random fluctuations. The value of our study lies in two aspects. Mathematically, by using the Markov semigroups theory, we prove that the reproduction number R0S can be used to govern the stochastic dynamics of SDE model. If R0S<1, under mild extra conditions, the SDE system has a disease-free absorbing set which means the extinction of disease with probability one. If R0S>1, under mild extra conditions, it has an endemic stationary distribution which leads to the stochastical persistence of the disease. Epidemiologically, we find that random fluctuations can suppress disease outbreak, which can provide us some useful control strategies to regulate disease dynamics.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Differential Equations - Volume 259, Issue 12, 15 December 2015, Pages 7463–7502
نویسندگان
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