Most programs stop quickly or never halt

The aim of this paper is to provide a probabilistic, but non-quantum, analysis of the Halting Problem. Our approach is to have the probability space extend over both space and time and to consider the probability that a random N-bit program has halted by a random time. We postulate an a priori computable probability distribution on all possible runtimes and we prove that given an integer k>0, we can effectively compute a time bound T such that the probability that an N-bit program will eventually halt given that it has not halted by T is smaller than 2−k.We also show that the set of halting programs (which is computably enumerable, but not computable) can be written as a disjoint union of a computable set and a set of effectively vanishing probability.Finally, we show that “long” runtimes are effectively rare. More formally, the set of times at which an N-bit program can stop after the time 2N+constant has effectively zero density.