Estimating the size of a closed population from a single mark–recapture regime by using a diffusion probability of marked individuals

A population estimate model was developed to account for the unequal recapture probability of marked animals when their diffusion into the released population has yet to reach the equilibrium. We assumed a spatial bias for marked individuals within the finite area of the animals’ territory, and used a correction parameter to account for the bias. Mark–recapture data previously collected for field colonies of the Formosan subterranean termite, Coptotermes formosanus Shiraki, were applied to the new model and the results were compared with the Peterson and weighted mean models.