A SAS macro for target dose estimation by reinforced urn processes in phase I clinical trials

The reinforced urn processes (RUPs) approach can estimate the target dose on the basis of the prior distribution function precisely and conveniently without the requirements about the explicit-estimated dose–response curve and the posterior complicated inference. The application of the RUPs approach was not discussed from the perspective of phase I clinical trial in the previous studies which just focused on the theory and methodology. And the modification of the traditional RUPs design should be considered for the purposes of ethnics and efficiency. A SAS macro was designed to explore the appropriate parameter settings according to the simulation outcomes in different situations and apply the RUPs approach for two state processes in phase I clinical trail with the modified RUPs design. The posterior estimation can be obtained precisely and efficiently with application of SAS program following the appropriate workflow and determination rule which were described in the example.