Exploring spatially varying and scale-dependent relationships between soil contamination and landscape patterns using geographically weighted regression

Landscape pattern is an important determinant of soil contamination at multiple scales, and a proper understanding of their relationship is essential for alleviating soil contamination and making decisions for land planners. Both soil contamination and landscape patterns are heterogeneous across spaces and scale-dependent, but most studies were carried out on a single scale and used the conventional multivariate analyses (e.g. correlation analysis, ordinary least squared regression-OLS) that ignored the issue of spatial autocorrelation. To move forward, this paper examined spatially varying relationships between agricultural soil trace metal contamination and landscape patterns at three block scales (i.e. 5 km × 5  km, 10 km × 10 km, 15 km × 15 km) in the Pearl River Delta (PRD), south China, using geographically weighted regression (GWR). This paper found that GWR performed better than OLS in terms of increasing R square of the model, lowering Akaike Information Criterion values and reducing spatial autocorrelation. GWR results revealed great spatial variations in the relationships across scales, with an increasing explanatory power of the model from small to large block scales. Despite a few negative correlations, more positive correlations were found between soil contamination and different aspects of landscape patterns of water, urban land and the whole landscape (i.e. the proportion, mean patch area, the degree of landscape fragmentation, landscape-level structural complexity, aggregation/connectivity, road density and river density). Similarly, more negative correlations were found between soil contamination and landscape patterns of forest and the distance to the river and industry land (p < 0.05). Furthermore, most significant correlations between soil contamination and landscape variables occurred in the western PRD across scales, which could be explained by the prevailing wind, the distribution of pollutant sources and the pathway of trace metal inputs.