System dynamics simulation model for assessing socio-economic impacts of different levels of environmental flow allocation in the Weihe River Basin, China

This study develops a complex system dynamics model (SD) reflecting interactions between water resources, Environmental Flow (EF) and socio-economy using SD software package “Vensim PLE”. The proposed model is employed to assess socio-economic impacts of different levels of EF allocation in the Weihe River Basin of China. Four alternative socio-economic growth patterns and four EF allocation schemes are designed to simulate those impacts. The results reveal that developed SD model performance well in reflecting the dynamic behavior of the system in the current study area. In the meanwhile, an optimal growth pattern considering both socio-economic growth and EF requirements are also found by comparing the different scenario simulation results.

► Environmental Flow (EF) is an essential topic in water resources management.
► Water resources, socio-economic growth and EF form a complex dynamic system.
► A system dynamics (SD) model was developed.
► Socio-economic impacts of different levels of EF allocation were assessed.
► SD model displayed a good performance to reflect dynamic behaviors of the system.