A fuzzy set-based approach to origin–destination matrix estimation in urban traffic networks with imprecise data

• A fuzzy set O–D estimation model based on imprecise generation and distribution data.
• Model solved using successive linear approximation.
• Efficient implicit enumeration of O–D routes by column generation.
• Numerical tests providing insights into performance characteristics.
• Favourable computational experience compared to previous approaches.

An important issue in the management of urban traffic networks is the estimation of origin–destination (O–D) matrices whose entries represent the travel demands of network users. We discuss the challenges of O–D matrix estimation with incomplete, imprecise data. We propose a fuzzy set-based approach that utilises successive linear approximation. The fuzzy sets used have triangular membership functions that are easy to interpret and enable straightforward calibration of the parameters that weight the discrepancy between observed data and those predicted by the proposed approach. The method is potentially useful when prior O–D matrix entry estimates are unavailable or scarce, requiring trip generation information on origin departures and/or destination arrivals, leading to multiple modelling alternatives. The method may also be useful when there is no O–D matrix that can be user-optimally assigned to the network to reproduce observed link counts exactly. The method has been tested on some numerical examples from the literature and the results compare favourably with the results of earlier methods. It has also been successfully used to estimate O–D matrices for a practical urban traffic network in Brazil.