Composite multilinearity, epistemic uncertainty and risk achievement worth

Risk achievement worth is one of the most widely utilized importance measures. RAW is defined as the ratio of the risk metric value attained when a component has failed over the base case value of the risk metric. Traditionally, both the numerator and denominator are point estimates. Relevant literature has shown that inclusion of epistemic uncertainty (i) induces notable variability in the point estimate ranking and (ii) causes the expected value of the risk metric to differ from its nominal value. We investigate the conditions under which the equality of the nominal and expected values of a reliability risk metric holds. We then study how the presence of epistemic uncertainty affects RAW and the associated ranking. We propose an extension of RAW (called ERAW) which allows one to obtain a ranking robust to epistemic uncertainty. We discuss the properties of ERAW and the conditions under which it coincides with RAW. We apply our findings to a probabilistic risk assessment model developed for the safety analysis of NASA lunar space missions.

► Under epistemic uncertainty a risk metric expected value differs from its nominal value.
► Separability and state-of-knowledge independence are necessary for coincidence.
► We extend Risk Achievement Worth to make it robust to epistemic uncertainty.