Analysis of supply contracts with quantity flexibility

This paper explores a class of supply contracts under which a buyer receives discounts for committing to purchases in advance. The further in advance the commitment is made, the larger the discount. As time rolls forward, the buyer can increase the order quantities for future periods of the rolling horizon based on updated demand forecast information and inventory status. However, the buyer pays a higher per-unit cost for the incremental units. Such contracts are used by automobile and contract manufacturers, and are quite common in fuel oil and natural gas delivery markets. We develop a finite-horizon dynamic programming model to characterize the structure of the optimal replenishment strategy for the buyer. We present heuristic approaches to calculate the order volume in each period of the rolling horizon. Finally, we numerically evaluate the heuristic approaches and draw some managerial insights based on the findings.