کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
481466 1446084 2012 6 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Monte Carlo analysis of estimation methods for the prediction of customer response patterns in direct marketing
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی کامپیوتر علوم کامپیوتر (عمومی)
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Monte Carlo analysis of estimation methods for the prediction of customer response patterns in direct marketing
چکیده انگلیسی

In direct marketing, customers are usually asked to take a specific action, and their responses are recorded over time and stored in a database. Based on the response data, we can estimate the number of customers who will ultimately respond, the number of responses anticipated to receive by a certain period of time, and the like. The goal of this article is to derive and propose several estimation methods and compare their performances in a Monte Carlo simulation. The response patterns can be described by a simple geometric function, which relates the number of responses to elapsed time. The “maximum likelihood” estimator appears to be the most effective method of estimating the parameters of this function. As we have more sample observations, the maximum likelihood estimates also converge to the true parameter values rapidly.


► We propose a decision model of predicting customer response patterns in direct marketing.
► The performances of several estimation methods are compared in a Monte Carlo simulation.
► The simulation result shows that the method of maximum likelihood has the smallest RMSE.
► Its convergence to the true parameter value is also shown to be very fast.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: European Journal of Operational Research - Volume 217, Issue 3, 16 March 2012, Pages 673–678
نویسندگان
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