Forecasting China's Service Outsourcing Development with an EMD-VAR-SVR Ensemble Method

Service outsourcing is playing a more and more important role in the world economy. With the fast development of information technology and service industry, China is witnessing an accelerated growth momentum of service outsourcing. In the first half year of 2015, the total service-outsourcing executive contracts value of China is increased by 9.7% to US $40.8 billion. Looking ahead 10 years, China's service outsourcing market will receive unprecedented opportunities and challenges, predicting the contract amount of service outsourcing can promote the healthy development of the industry. In this paper, an EMD-VAR-SVR ensemble method is proposed for predicting the executive amount of servicing outsourcing. In order to verify and test the forecasting capability of the proposed EMD-VAR-SVR ensemble method, the single VAR model and single SVR model are used as the benchmark models. The empirical result shows that the proposed ensemble method's prediction has the best effect.