Uncertainty of rainfall-induced landslides considering spatial variability of parameters

A cross-correlation analysis is conducted to determine the impacts of the heterogeneity of hydraulic conductivity Ks, soil cohesion c′ and soil friction angle (tan φ′) on the uncertainty of slope stability in time and space during rainfall. We find the relative importance of tan φ′ and c′ depends on the effective stress. While the sensitivity of the stability to the variability of Ks is small, the large coefficient of variation of Ks may exacerbate the variability of pore-water pressure. Therefore, characterizing the heterogeneity of hydraulic properties and pore-water distribution in the field is critical to the stability analysis.