Near-term analysis of a roll-out strategy to introduce fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen stations in Shenzhen China

The utilization of fuel cell vehicles can significantly reduce the greenhouse gas emissions in urban areas. However, huge investments are needed to construct the hydrogen infrastructure to produce, store and distribute hydrogen fuel to fuel cell vehicles. The present study conducted an analysis of a roll-out strategy to introduce fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen stations in Shenzhen, China between 2016 and 2025. An accurate estimation to develop hydrogen economy in Shenzhen in the near-term was provided. Three different scenarios of fuel cell vehicle penetration rate in the new car sales market were employed to predict the number of fuel cell vehicles and daily hydrogen demand in Shenzhen. The capital investment and operation/maintenance cost of on-site steam methane reforming hydrogen fueling stations was estimated. For a station with 100, 500 and 1000 kg/day capacity, the capital investment is $1.04, 4.15 and 7.84 million, respectively, while the corresponding hydrogen fuel price at 20 years of return on investment (ROI) is 7.7, 7.0 and 6.8 $/kg, respectively. A roll-out strategy of ten hydrogen stations in Shenzhen by 2020 was proposed, taking into consideration the population density, average income, locations of grocery stores and shopping malls, and locations of existing gas stations. The total capital investment required to construct 10 hydrogen stations is $19.7 million. The fuel costs and life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of hydrogen, gasoline and electricity vehicles were assessed to justify the benefits of introducing fuel cell vehicles in Shenzhen. Local industry and government can use the results to make decisions about possible future H2 utilization and infrastructure construction.