Exploring the driving forces and mitigation pathways of CO2 emissions in China's petroleum refining and coking industry: 1995-2031

With the increasing pressure on reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in China, petroleum refining and coking industry (PRCI), one of the largest CO2 emitters among China's industrial sub-sectors, needs to undertake more responsibilities of mitigating CO2 emissions. This is the first study to present a specific investigation on the driving factors of energy-related CO2 emissions changes in China's PRCI over the period 1995-2013. Using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition method, we decompose the CO2 emissions changes of China's PRCI into five factors and compare their diverse contributions. The results show that industrial activity is the dominant driving force of the growth of CO2 emissions, followed by industrial scale and energy intensity. Although energy intensity mildly increased CO2 emissions during the period 1995-2000, it becomes the crucial mitigating factor after 2000. Emission coefficient and energy structure have marginal effects. Further, based on the main driving factors, a scenario analysis is conducted to seek for the mitigation pathway of CO2 emissions in China's PRCI over the period 2013-2031. To reduce CO2 emissions in China's PRCI, we suggest that more importance should be attached to the R&D investment of energy-saving technology and the cleaner transition of energy structure in the long run. Moreover, industrial emission-reduction policies should be formulated and implemented from a perspective of the whole industrial chain rather than certain single sub-sector.