Using a segmented dynamic dwelling stock model for scenario analysis of future energy demand: The dwelling stock of Norway 2016-2050

- A dynamic and segmented dwelling stock model is applied for energy analyses.
- A case study was conducted for the Norwegian dwelling stock 2016-2050.
- More advanced and/or frequent renovation give limited additional energy savings.
- Use of local energy sources, e.g. heat pumps and PV, has a large future potential.
- User behaviour is likely to strongly reduce the real energy savings in the system.

The housing sector is important for future energy savings and greenhouse gas emission mitigation. A dynamic, stock-driven and segmented dwelling stock model is applied for dwelling stock energy analyses. Renovation activity is estimated as the need for renovation during the ageing process of the stock, in contrast to exogenously defined and often unrealistic renovation rates applied in other models. The case study of Norway 2016-2050 shows that despite stock growth, the total theoretical estimated delivered energy is expected to decrease from 2016 to 2050 by 23% (baseline) and 52% (most optimistic scenario). A large share of the energy-efficiency potential of the stock is already realized through standard renovation. The potential for further reductions through more advanced and/or more frequent renovation, compared to current practice, is surprisingly limited. However, extensive use of heat pumps and photovoltaics will give large additional future energy savings. Finally, user behaviour is highly important. A strong future rebound effect is expected as the dwelling stock becomes more energy efficient. The estimated total 'real' energy demand is expected to decrease by only 1% (baseline) and 36% (most optimistic scenario). Hence, reaching significant future energy and emission reductions in the Norwegian dwelling stock system will be challenging.

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