Stochastic modelling of aggregated thermal loads for impact analysis of demand side frequency regulation in the case of Sardinia in 2020

This paper proposes a model of the thermal dynamics and of the end-use of domestic refrigerators (fridges) and water heaters (boilers) in the foretasted scenario of the Sardinian electric network in 2020. This model is employed to evaluate the potential variations of power demand of the aggregates of fridges and boilers during one year in the considered scenario. The resulting quantities can be considered as a form of power reserves to be used for contributing to the frequency regulation through a proper demand side response strategy. The particular case of the system for frequency control proposed by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) is then analysed by simulations in order to show advantages and drawbacks.