کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
5030063 1470668 2016 5 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Modeling the Effects Induced by the Expected Climatic Trends on Landslide Activity at Large Scale
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه سایر رشته های مهندسی مهندسی (عمومی)
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Modeling the Effects Induced by the Expected Climatic Trends on Landslide Activity at Large Scale
چکیده انگلیسی

Traditionally, slope stability assessments are based on stationary expected extreme rainfalls, provided by the Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves. More recent approaches are based on projected rainfall scenarios, considering the expected climatic trends provided by General Circulation Models (GCMs). The projected rainfalls used in this study have been obtained by climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Different GCMs emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5, 8.5) and time horizons (e.g., 2010-2039; 2040-2069; 2070-2099) are analysed. In order to fill the scale gap between the spatial resolution of GCMs and the resolution required for impact studies, statistically downscaled climate projections provided by [1,2] are used as input into PG_TRIGRS [3] to predict the effect of climatic change on landslide activity. A hydrological basin located in the Umbria region of central Italy is used as case study.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Procedia Engineering - Volume 158, 2016, Pages 541-545
نویسندگان
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