Development of the scenario-based technology roadmap considering layer heterogeneity: An approach using CIA and AHP

- This paper suggests a framework for developing the scenario-based roadmap.
- This paper suggests a scenario-based approach of CIA and AHP.
- For the market layer, we employed CIA for measuring the impact of several scenarios.
- For the product and technology layer, we employed AHP for supporting firms' decision making.

Scenario-based roadmapping has been considered as an effective means to deal with the dynamics of business environments. However, previous research on the scenario-based roadmap has commonly employed a single methodology to develop technology roadmaps, even if the characteristics of layers in technology roadmaps are different. The market planning deals with 'external scenarios' which are uncontrollable, whereas the product and technology planning is associated with 'internal scenarios' which are controllable. The former is related to the analysis and evaluation, whereas the latter is associated with strategic decision-making. This leads to the important implication that we have to consider two different perspectives of planning and have to utilize two different methodologies. In response, this paper employs an approach using cross impact analysis (CIA) and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) as a tool for scenario-based roadmapping. CIA is employed for roadmapping the market layer due to its ability to measure the impact of the external environment, whereas AHP is employed to roadmap the technology and product layers, due to its characteristics of decision-making process. To illustrate the working of proposed approach, a case study was conducted for the u-healthcare services.