Upward counterfactual thinking and depression: A meta-analysis

- We examined the relationship between upward counterfactual thinking and depression.
- An overall average effect size of r = .26 was found in a pooled sample of 13,168.
- Thoughts about better outcomes and regret were similarly related to depression.
- Upward counterfactual thinking was associated with current and future depression.
- Sample type and measurement methods moderated the relationship.

This meta-analysis examined the strength of association between upward counterfactual thinking and depressive symptoms. Forty-two effect sizes from a pooled sample of 13,168 respondents produced a weighted average effect size of r = .26, p < .001. Moderator analyses using an expanded set of 96 effect sizes indicated that upward counterfactuals and regret produced significant positive effects that were similar in strength. Effects also did not vary as a function of the theme of the counterfactual-inducing situation or study design (cross-sectional versus longitudinal). Significant effect size heterogeneity was observed across sample types, methods of assessing upward counterfactual thinking, and types of depression scale. Significant positive effects were found in studies that employed samples of bereaved individuals, older adults, terminally ill patients, or university students, but not adolescent mothers or mixed samples. Both number-based and Likert-based upward counterfactual thinking assessments produced significant positive effects, with the latter generating a larger effect. All depression scales produced significant positive effects, except for the Psychiatric Epidemiology Research Interview. Research and theoretical implications are discussed in relation to cognitive theories of depression and the functional theory of upward counterfactual thinking, and important gaps in the extant research literature are identified.