Asia's evolving role in global wine markets

- Asia is projected to dominate global wine consumption and import growth this decade.
- China's latest bilateral trade agreements are adding to that wine import growth.
- China's austerity drive is reducing growth only in the small ultra-premium wine sector.

Over the past decade Hong Kong and China have become far more important to the world's wine markets, while Southeast Asia's imports of fine wine continue to grow steadily. This paper reviews recent developments in the light of comparative advantage theory before drawing on a model of global wine markets to project developments in Asia and elsewhere over the next five years under various economic growth, real exchange rate, and policy assumptions. It concludes that China is set to continue to be by far the most dominant player in Asia, and to change global markets for wines dramatically, just as it has been doing and will continue to do for so many other products.