China's sovereign debt: A balance-sheet perspective

- We construct balance sheets for China's government and public sector.
- China's public debt-GDP ratio is lower than in most large economies.
- China's government and public debt-asset ratio is lower than its historical height.
- Local government debt risk is enlarged by fiscal and financing double mismatch.
- China's public debt risk is manageable.

We analyze China's sovereign debt by constructing balance sheets for China's government and public sector. We find that China's government debt-to-GDP ratio is lower than that of most large developed economies. We also find the debt-to-asset ratio of China's government and public sector significantly lower than its own historical height (1998-2002). Local government debt is mainly to finance infrastructure investments. Local government debt risk is amplified by two mismatches. The first is the income-expenditure mismatch between central and local governments. The second is the maturity mismatch of short-term debt and long-term infrastructure investments. The maturity mismatch may cause short-term repayment difficulties.