Rapid growth and changing economic structure: The expenditure side story and its implications for China

The purpose of this essay has not been to provide China with a detailed list of all of the things that the country must do to maintain a high growth rate. The purpose of this essay instead has been to analyze some of the most basic choices that China must make going forward, choices that are not yet fully understood either by government or private analysts. China has a very unusual economic structure at least on the aggregate demand side and that creates special challenges that other countries have not had to face to the same degree. How well China handles these challenges will determine whether it will continue to progress rapidly to middle income status and beyond.

Research Highlights► China has a very unusual macroeconomic structure on the demand side. ► Household consumption is an unusually low share of China's GDP. ► An export surplus has helped fill the gap in aggregate demand in the past. ► The export surplus share of GDP is likely to fall in the future. ► That leaves a large aggregate demand gap to will mainly with government investment.