Is It Possible to Make Rubber Extraction Ecologically and Economically Viable in the Amazon? The Southern Acre and Chico Mendes Reserve Case Study

- We used the largest dataset on rubber trees for modeling spatial distribution of tree density and yields
- We geographically differentiated rents of three major rubber products, from both native forests and rubber plantations
- Our spatially-explicit ecological and economic model allows exploring policy options for conservation in the Amazon
- Rubber extraction in Amazon forests is not economically viable without government subsidies
- There is a need to reframe current policy options by including other approaches that go beyond market prices

Rubber extraction in the Amazon faces enormous ecological and economic challenges. We modeled the ecology (tree density and forest yields) and the production chain, including rents of the three major rubber products: Pressed Virgin Rubber (PVR), Liquid Latex (LL), and Liquid Smoked Sheet (LSS) from native forests and from plantations in Southern Acre, including the emblematic Chico Mendes Reserve. Our estimates show that, in native forests, tree density ranges from 0 to 4 trees/ha (average = 1.67 trees/ha), while productivity varies from 1 to 3 l/tree/year (average = 2.26 l/tree/year) with yields between 1 and 6 l/ha/year. Our model estimates a potential annual production of 890 tons of dry rubber in the 2.5 million ha of forests of Southern Acre (average = 0.36 kg/ha/year). Rubber extraction in native forests is not economically viable without government subsidies. Mean Equivalent Annual Annuity (EAA) for LL is US$ 3.24 ha/year in a scenario with subsidies and of 75% of potential annual harvest. LSS from plantations reaches an EAA of US$ 270 ha/year if costs of formation are subsidized. Public subsidies or Payments for Ecosystem Services are essential to sustain, at least temporally, rubber tapper identity - an important Cultural Ecosystem Service of the Amazon.