How do rainfall variability, food security and remittances interact? The case of rural Mali

In this paper, we rely on the CFSVA survey of 2005 to assess the impact of rainfall variability and remittances on the food security of rural households in Mali. To this end, we first design a composite food security index which enables us to distinguish households depending on their level of food security (low, intermediate, high). Then, we estimate a partial proportional odds logistic model in order to evaluate the main determinants leading to a switch from one level of food security to the other. We show that inter-annual and seasonal rainfall variability have a negative impact on food security. This is especially true in southern Mali, although agro-ecological conditions in this region are usually more favorable. As for remittances, their impact is positive, though it needs to be qualified: they enable households to solve temporary food security situations, but they have no effect on structural food security issues.