Crop choice as climate change adaptation: Evidence from Bangladesh

- This is the first study based on repeated cross sectional evidence to investigate the effect of climate on crop choice.
- Multinomial logit model from repeated cross section data of Bangladesh is estimated in this paper.
- This research finds that crop choice is climate-sensitive.
- This study shows that farmers will adjust the varieties of a crops in response to seasonal climate change scenarios.
- This paper finds structural stability shortcoming of single cross-section model to predict future crop choice.

This paper examines whether crop choice is affected by climate change. I have used a sample of 11,389 farmers across Bangladesh from the years 2000, 2005 and 2010 and 30 years moving average of rainfall and temperature against each year. Using multinomial logit model, I regress climate variables and other household level socio-economic factors on crop choice. This regression result implies that crop choice is climate-sensitive. Households in the high rainfall areas choose rain-fed Aman rice as their dominant crop while farmers of low rainfall areas select irrigation based Boro rice. Using the estimated results, I simulate the impact of different climate change scenarios on crop choice and find that a shift in crop choices will take place in Bangladesh. Especially, temperature increase will upset rainfed Aman rice crop choice and make the farmers to choose irrigation based Boro, Aus and other crops. Unlike temperature, rainfall scenarios are not damaging for rain-fed rice crop choice. This paper also unveils a shortcoming of structural stability between different single cross-sectional models to simulate the effect of climate change scenarios on crop choice. Changes in future rice cropping pattern in Bangladesh come up as findings of this research, which indicate important policy implications for climate vulnerable developing countries.